RANCANG BANGUN SISTEM PREDIKSI PENDAPATAN PAJAK DAERAH BERBASIS WEBSITE MENGGUNAKAN METODE TIME SERIES (Studi Kasus pada BPKPD Kabupaten Magetan)

Rozak, Muhamad Arif Fatkhur (2026) RANCANG BANGUN SISTEM PREDIKSI PENDAPATAN PAJAK DAERAH BERBASIS WEBSITE MENGGUNAKAN METODE TIME SERIES (Studi Kasus pada BPKPD Kabupaten Magetan). S1 thesis, Universitas PGRI Madiun.

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Abstract

Local tax revenue is an essential source of income for local governments in supporting regional development and public services. One type of regional tax that requires precise management and projection is the Land and Building Tax (PBB). This study aims to design and develop a web-based regional tax revenue prediction system using the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method optimized with Log Transformation and the Weighted Seasonal Index. The system was developed to assist in managing historical PBB revenue data, performing adaptive prediction computations through Dynamic Period Selection, displaying prediction graph visualizations, and measuring prediction accuracy using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The system development methodology applied in this study is Agile Development, which consists of requirement, design, develop, testing, deployment, and review stages. The system was built using the Laravel framework for the backend, React for the frontend, and MySQL as the database. The results show that all system functionalities run exceptionally well based on black box testing across 20 test scenarios, all of which achieved a 100% success status. Furthermore, performance testing of the optimized algorithm on the test data from January to December 2025 yielded an average MAPE value of 36.12%, indicating that the system's forecasting capability falls into the reasonable forecasting category. Therefore, this system is valid and competent to be used as a digital decision support tool for BPKPD Magetan Regency in managing data and projecting future regional tax revenue targets more rationally.

Item Type: Thesis/Skripsi/Tugas Akhir (S1)
Kata Kunci: Rancang Bangun, Prediksi Pajak Daerah, Website, Simple Moving Average, MAPE, Design and Development, Regional Tax Prediction, Website, Simple Moving Average, MAPE.
Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Teknik > Teknik Informatika
Depositing User: FATKHUR ARIF MUHAMAD
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2026 03:31
Last Modified: 06 Oct 2026 03:31
URI: http://eprint.unipma.ac.id/id/eprint/8949

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